Four Years of War: The Winner Takes It All
This reflection is about the fourth year of the war in Ukraine. Time is limited, so I want to focus on three themes: innovation, slow adaptation, and the new generation.
Innovation is one of the key consequences of this war. Wars have always been catalysts for solutions to urgent problems. It is either you or the enemy. As Abba famously said, the winner takes it all. Today, Ukraine is breaking through in technology, military practice, reforms, and adaptability. We hear about super drones, smarter command systems, and real time information flowing across the front lines. None of this came from comfort or long term strategic clarity. It was forged through blood and sweat, often after painful mistakes and dire consequences. Innovation here is not a buzzword. It is survival compressed into months.
European states now stand ahead of where Ukraine was in 2014. At the very least, they are gradually preparing for confrontation with Russia. Yet the central danger for Europe is slow adaptation. Ukrainian battalions innovate daily because they have no choice. Europeans do have a choice. Their lives are not hanging by a silver line. There is no immediate existential incentive to change at speed. Working in a cosy warehouse may be an efficient way to scale production, but it brings its own constraints. It slows the rate of adaptation. Democratic processes, while essential, stretch legislative and procurement timelines that in wartime can mean survival.
At the same time, Russia adapts too. It scales. It deepens cooperation with China and expands industrial capacity. Every village taken brings not only territory but people: additional men for war, women for labour, children for indoctrination and future innovation. More than 4.5 million children have experienced youth mobilisation camps, shaping a generation socialised for conflict from an early age. And it is worth remembering that new actors can enter wars. Georgia, for example, is not in NATO and has a population that could be drawn into confrontation. The map is not static.
My point is simple: the Russian army can grow and can be sustained beyond what many have assumed. Analysts, scientists, and experts have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine will fall, or that Russia will fall. I think ChatGPT is a better analyst today: “Victory itself is not binary. Each side defines it differently. For Kyiv, it centers on sovereignty and territorial integrity. For Moscow, it has involved control, leverage, and geopolitical positioning.”
Regardless of what one thinks about Russian ambitions, the Russian state is adapting and redefining its objectives. It is not linear. It absorbs losses, recalibrates, and moves again.
And finally, the generation. The bravest and proudest daughters and sisters of Ukraine will not see tomorrow. The cost of this war grows exponentially because the loss of life is irreversible. As Russia has more resources to spare, it becomes even more aggressive. The evilness of this regime is that it is ready to sacrifice disproportionately more than Europe is willing to contemplate.
If Europe were forced to fight unprepared, the consequences would go far beyond the battlefield. Already in a demographic crisis, it would risk losing the most motivated and capable part of its young population. A welfare state cannot survive with too few young people to sustain it. The social contract would fracture. Systems would collapse under pressure. Europe, in many ways, never fully recovered demographically or psychologically from the Second World War. To be unprepared for another major war would not simply be a mistake. It would be negligent.
Do not let yourselves pay for this with human lives later. There is a Ukrainian saying: if you have money problems, you have one problem. If you have health problems, There is a Ukrainian saying:
If you have money problems, you have one problem. Ilness, on the other hand, costs you twice: first in health, then in wealth. Security belongs to the second category.