Lebanon’s Fragile Opportunity After Hezbollah
Aliona Hlivco, Founder and CEO of SJFG, during a visit to Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s military and security wings have officially been banned by Lebanon’s leadership. After decades of disruption and destabilisation, the militia group, first formed in 1982, has reached its weakest point yet. Still, its political wing and parliamentary mandate remain embedded in Lebanon’s political system.
A fortnight ago, just before Israel’s and America’s strikes against Iran, I spent several days in Lebanon. Before drones and missiles began flying across the region once again, the country felt like a battered but still charming gem of the Middle East. What struck me most was the prevailing sense of cautious hope. Across conversations in political and business circles, there was a genuine belief that Lebanon might finally be approaching a turning point.
It is therefore deeply disturbing that a place which felt relatively peaceful only two weeks ago is now reporting over 80 civilian casualties - a number likely to rise. Yet America’s intervention in Iran was widely anticipated, and in some quarters even welcomed. With Hezbollah weakened, many Lebanese saw a rare opportunity to dismantle its entrenched influence over the state. Targeting Iran’s leadership was viewed as the quickest way to accelerate that shift.
And yet, even if Hezbollah ultimately loses its institutionalised presence, the structural challenges facing Lebanon will remain profound.
Lebanon’s sectarian political system is as intricate as its society. Positioned historically at the crossroads of civilisations and regional rivalries, the country has long been contested as the gem of the Middle East. In this, it reminds me strongly of Ukraine’s history in Europe - a nation whose geography has made it both valuable and vulnerable.
Those communities marginalised by years of abandonment and economic collapse will need to be brought back into the national fold and offered tangible financial and material support. Without this, the risk of further radicalisation - and the emergence of a new “Hezbollah” - will remain. This must be a genuine grassroots, cross-system effort rather than another elite-driven adjustment.
Relations with Israel will also require careful rethinking if lasting peace is to be achieved.
Meanwhile, the likely postponement of the planned spring elections risks delaying much-needed accountability. When new leadership does emerge, it must take ownership of the banking collapse and begin speaking to the public honestly about the losses that cannot be avoided. Restoring international credibility - including securing a much-needed IMF loan - will demand further difficult and unpopular reforms, particularly in optimising the public sector.
During my days in Lebanon in February, I met many remarkable individuals who had returned from safety abroad to rebuild their country. Their commitment was striking. The hope was real.
Now, amid renewed destruction and the uncertainty of war, that hope will be tested. But if it is matched by political courage and structural reform, Lebanon may yet transform this fragile moment into lasting renewal.